The summer movie season is getting underway earlier than ever this year with Friday's release of Marvel's “Captain America:Winter Soldier,” and Fox's sequel to “Rio” the week after.
But the real blockbuster pile-up begins in May. Every week for four months, studios will release at least one movie — sometimes two or three — they expect to gross at least $100 million.
Some of them — sequels like “X-Men: Days of Future Past,” “How to Train Your Dragon 2” and “Transformers: Age of Extinction” — are guaranteed to make money. But there are plenty of franchise aspirants that could self-destruct. Think “After Earth” or “Lone Ranger” last summer.
Studios will look to Angelina Jolie, Channing Tatum and Seth MacFarlane to guide them through the sand traps. But none of them are sure bets, which makes this summer all the more interesting. Here are the nine biggest questions for Hollywood over the next few months.
Here's what we need to know before Summer movie season >
Will Michael Bay Deliver For Paramount?
Paramount has adopted a less is more approach for the summer, releasing just three movies. There is a wild card to this risk-averse strategy: Michael Bay.
He produced two of Paramount's three movies, “Transformers: Age of Extinction,” which he also directed, and “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles,” an extravagant reboot of the popular comic book.
Bay is a vital partner for Paramount given his stewardship of the “Transformers” franchise, which has grossed $2.67 billion worldwide at the box office. This latest battle of Decepticons and Autobots, in which Mark Wahlberg replaces Shia LaBeouf, will gross hundreds of millions (if not billions).
Yet for Paramount to escape this summer unscathed, it will need “Turtles” to work as well. With a budget north of $120 million, that is no guarantee.
Also read: Mark Wahlberg Boasts ‘Transformers Age of Extinction’ Will Be 2014's Biggest Hit
Bay, the excitable, talented alchemist of comedy and explosions will need to be something new — consistent.
Which Movie Will China Save?
Overeager journalists, bloggers and social media pontificators prematurely label movies flops all the time. Many buried “Noah” before it opened, just as most of Hollywood gave up on “World War Z” last summer.
Yet a funny thing happens with a lot of those “flops”: God, also known as the foreign market, intervenes.
Also read: China Box Office Hits $3.6 Billion in 2013 – Biggest Foreign Haul Ever
Take last summer's “Pacific Rim.” The movie grossed $101.8 million in the U.S., a paltry sum given its $190 million budget (and many suspect it cost a lot more). People labeled the movie a failure. Yet it saved itself from damnation by grossing $309 million overseas ($111.9 million in China alone). Will Legendary be making the sequel Guillermo Del Toro thought up? No. Was that movie a huge flop? No.
There are several candidates for overseas salvation this summer, in particular “Edge of Tomorrow” — Tom Cruise plays big overseas — and “Jupiter Ascending.” Speaking of “Jupiter Ascending”…
Can Seth MacFarlane Do It Again?
Seth MacFarlane built a television empire worth billions by blending sardonic wit with childish humor. Yet many doubted he could transition successfully into the movie business.
He silenced critics with “Ted,” a comedy about a talking, drinking, womanizing teddy bear that grossed $549 million at the box office in 2012. It simultaneously initiated the resurgence of Universal and established MacFarlane as a filmmaker.
See photos:49 Summer Movies on Our Radar: From ‘Amazing Spider-Man’ to Tina Fey's Next Comedy
Before suiting up for “Ted 2,” MacFarlane returns with “A Million Days to Die in the West,” a Western comedy produced by Media Rights Capital. Once again, he will face doubts.
We know MacFarlane can write and direct, but he also stars in this one, anthropomorphizing a voice viewers have heard for years. He has also selected a genre, the Western, which Hollywood shuns, ostensibly, because those movies don't make money.
Well, except when a singular talent like Quentin Tarantino makes one. MacFarlane is cut from a similar cloth.
Also read: The Brilliance of ‘Cosmos’ – Seth MacFarlane Uses His Power for Good
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